An Essay by: Scott Digital

Ford…….will survive……GM will survive……..Chrysler, Audi, Mercedes, etc.….. But who cares, seriously. Let’s use a human’s evolution from infancy to death as an analogy for a car company. As a child, our choices are small, but as we approach our teen years, we have enough knowledge to make some powerful decisions (some right some wrong). As we approach our graduation from high school we have the energy and ability to do some truly great things. During these years also have a sense of invincibility, which is often a good thing (in the case of an extreme athlete) and not so good in terms making errors. College is a time where we hone our impulses and learn to be most productive. Soon after our 1st (real) job, responsibility hits with our financial burdens, and possibly a wife and soon kids……. This is in terms of creativity, the crux. Either a person can manage and become more inspired, or it all ends…… Then middle age hits, and the downward spiral begins. The young adult that once would jump fire now would not even think about it. The self preservation kicks in and the person ( company ) is paralyzed because of their financial burden, their 5000 kids that depend on them, their 5 spouses, the homes, the cars, the empire has to be maintained doesn’t it.

Here is the exact state that the traditional companies are in, burdened by the empire they must maintain. In comes the small player……. Think along the lines of Tesla, Paulin Motor Company, Luigi Colani, Ginetta, Castagna and the many other (lets just call them) Coach Builders. What put so many Coach Builders out of business back when the industrialized world came into play is exactly what is going to put them back in business. Artisans are expensive to keep employed and too slow for real production numbers. Manufacturing has come so far in the past 5 years that it is now possible for some of these fantasy creations from the little company to be produced. Gone are the men with the magic touch, in comes the computer with the special tool. With many companies now having the financial resources (example Google http://google.org/recharge/ ) and the want for change, I predict major changes will come. Non traditional car companies and partnerships have been forming for the past few years.

Let me use an example, the new Duesenberg Torpedo Coupe concept. Why develop a new drivetrain, brakes, suspension and (windshield wiper motor), etc, etc, etc………. The traditional car companies have already developed them for you, just buy them. If the small companies can concentrate on a small number of parts, this can create a greater car as a whole. I understand it will still take development to make all these pieces to work together, but the task suddenly seems less daunting. This led me in the beginning to call them “coach builders” not car companies. Because they are in fact leveraging current manufacturing, to produce a car that is greater in the ways of looks then the sum of its parts. Think about this; Computer speed doubles every 6 months ( Moore’s Law http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore’s_law) but the average fuel consumption for a V8 powered car in 2007 is only 10-15 mpg greater then it was in 1969, go figure. So why waste the millions of man hours to keep developing the same thing? For my engineers out there, I am not an ignorant Wall Street type that does not understand cars. Vehicle architecture has come a long way, as well as brake development, etc. My statements are very broad, and need to be understood from a very real assessment that automobile development has not been on par with developments in manufacturing, consumer products, or technology in just about any other field.

In terms of electric automobile production, it really is quite simple in terms of parts, what is not so simple is the speed, battery, and power management. What is exciting here is that because much of the control is computer/technology based, it can be uploaded on the fly. Think about replacing the thousands of parts from a gas/diesel motor with a small number of parts that make up an electric motor (http://electronics.howstuffworks.com/motor1.htm )

Electric cars are not new, but they may very well be the future, with new developments in ultra capacitors, and ultra dense energy storage, things in this field are promising. (Tesla motors http://www.teslamotors.com/index.php ) Tesla is a very small group of people, and investors, the leaned on Lotus Engineering’s expertise to develop the chassis, but for all intents it is a stand alone car company.

Now let’s not forget the East and Mid-East, development is coming so blazingly fast from China, India, Pakistan, and even countries like Russia and Slovakia in Europe are developing vehicles. So as the mighty giants get market share slowly chipped away, it is going to go to all these small companies that are developing vehicles. We have already seen what China (steal every design under the sun) can do in a short period of time. Let’s just hope they are capable of designing something original.

It is starting to happen, and with this change we will se some truly hideous designs. The light will come when the small companies hit their sophomore attempts and senior attempts. I already see promise in some of the companies such as the vehicle developed by the Paulin Motor Company. (Images here http://www.seriouswheels.com/cars/top-2007-Paulin-VR-Concept.htm )

No one can predict the future, that is why being a futurist is so fun………